What will the housing needs of immigrant households, elderly households, and minority households look like in 20 years? Can we continue to assume that their past housing demands are a good indicator of their future housing needs? To answer these and other questions, HUD commissioned a series of "Issue Papers on Demographic Trends Important to Housing" to study changes in the population over the next several years that will shape both housing demand and supply over the coming decade. The first of these, "Issue Paper on the Impact of Immigration for Housing," takes a closer look at past immigration patterns to project demand for housing in future years. While census data show that six states accounted for more than three quarters of all immigrant settlement in 1990, this issue paper projects that immigrants increasingly will settle elsewhere. The study explores the impact of several factors – language, proximity to country of origin, education, etc. – on settlement patterns going forward and the implications for housing markets. The authors note that, in the coming decades, high levels of immigration are not likely to create a housing crisis in the United States, as long as the factors determining their demand for housing are understood and appropriate planning is undertaken. The second paper, "Projections of U.S. Households by Race/Hispanic Origin, Age, Family Type, and Tenure to 2020: A Sensitivity Analysis," studies the ways in which assumptions about future immigration can influence population predictions and current and future trends in households’ age and minority compositions. The authors project that "22.3 million owner households will be formed over the first two decades of this new century, with 53 percent of those being non-Hispanic whites and 47 percent being minority." Lastly, "How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century" discusses the aging population, the growing prevalence of minority households, and the effect these trends may have on housing demand. For instance, while data suggests that the typically higher income, post-childrearing/pre-retirement age group would be expected to move to smaller homes, anecdotal evidence shows that this group has a preference for larger, more lavish homes – an issue critical to understanding future housing demand. Collectively, these three papers illustrate how the current demographic profile of the typical American household can be expected to change dramatically over the coming decades. The reports recommend further research topics, such as studying the links between immigration and housing prices and rent, and developing an understanding of the relationship between household income and household composition, especially in relation to life stages and racial and ethnic origin.
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