Supplementary Findings: Finding 9

• In 1997, 6.4 million very-low-income renters had a severe rent burden. This number increased from 5.9 million in 1995. Because this measured increase of 8 percent is not complicated by the 1997 change in AHS housing assistance questions, it implies strongly that worst case needs actually rose by more than 4 percent between 1995 and 1997.

As mentioned above under Finding 1, one of the most disturbing results found for this report is the sharp rise observed in severe rent burdens among all very-low-income renters, including both those with no assistance and those reporting some type of rental assistance. (Because of the major changes in the AHS assistance questions between 1995 and 1997, comparing estimates of all renters that do not rely on answers to the assistance questions in either year is likely to provide a more accurate portrait of change over time than is possible from the efforts reported above to make the 1995 counts of unassisted households as comparable as possible to the 1997 estimates.) The number of all very-low-income renters who pay more than half of their incomes for rent rose by 500,000 between 1995 and 1997 to reach an all-time high of 6.4 million. This 2-year increase of 500,000 among very-low-income renters in the housing problem that forms the main component of worst case needs suggests strongly that the estimated increase of 205,000 in worst case needs discussed in Finding 1 is an underestimate. It is similarly disquieting to note that between 1991 and 1997, the number of very-low-income renters who paid more than half of income for rent rose by almost 1.2 million, double the measured increase of 580,000 in worst case needs over that 6-year period.

• The 6.4 million very-low-income renters with a severe rent burden in 1997 include many families who report receiving some form of housing assistance.

Because the AHS assistance questions were changed in 1997 to provide more accurate estimates of the number and characteristics of renters already aided by a Federal, State, or local housing program, the fact that the 6.4 million very-low-income renters with severe rent burdens in 1997 include 1.3 million renters who apparently were assisted by some form of government program is also troubling. Rent/income ratios above the 30 percent of adjusted incomes required in public housing and privately owned, subsidized projects have been observed before in AHS data.²⁷ Extensive investigation suggests that the basic problem appears to be response error in the survey. However, rent/income ratios above 30 percent are possible in the voucher program, in privately-owned projects that do not receive deep subsidies, and in units subsidized through programs (such as the LIHTC) that have fixed rents (see Exhibit 4). Because severe rent burdens above 50 percent of income raise basic questions about the effectiveness of assistance programs in solving housing problems, the extent to which renters in subsidized programs experience excessive rent burdens will continue to be studied and monitored closely.